Tampilkan postingan dengan label american politics. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label american politics. Tampilkan semua postingan

Sabtu, 11 Agustus 2012

Romney picks Ryan

According to all the US media reports, Mitt Romney will announce his pick as his Vice Presidential candidate today and it is set to be Congressman Paul Ryan.

Ryan is pretty well known in the US as chair of the House of Representatives Budget Committee and author of an alternative budget that aims to slim down the size of the US government. It's a well worked out plan (if you like that sort of thing) and he's a good communicator. He's also a favourite of the tea party and will reassure those on the right that Romney meant what he said during the primaries.

According to reports, Romney will name his pick during a visit to decommissioned battleship USS Wisconsin - Ryan being from that state. That's pretty clunky, even for a US politician. But, as Ezra Klein notes in his Washington Post blog, it also highlights a fundamental problem for Romney with his VP choice. Ryan argues for cutting the US budget to 3.75% of GDP if you take out medicare, medicaid and social security. The trouble is that Romney has pledged to raise defence spending alone to 4%.

The rest of Mr Klein's blog is well worth reading for the other problems it may raise for the Romney campaign.

At it's heart, this is a 'hail mary' play by Romney. Perhaps the biggest risk is that, with Ryan being a details man, it leaves Romney's VP open to being seen as smarter than he is.

Selasa, 24 Januari 2012

Santorum - The Obama conspiracy theory candidate?

Rick Santorum appears to be trying to inherit the mantle of Donald Trump by fostering the conspiracy theories surrounding President Obama.

But where Trump had his concerns over where the President was born, Santorum also adds the President's religion as the video below demonstrates:



As Andrew Sullivan of 'The Dish' notes:
"Santorum knows that the president is a Christian. And he lets this lie pass. He also doesn't challenge the lunacy of Obama being ineligible for the presidency because he was born in Kenya"
After President Obama released his birth certificate to prove Trump wrong, the businessman had nowhere to go and withdrew from the battle to be President. Will the same happen to Santorum?

Rabu, 11 Januari 2012

Calling the Republican bluff

One of the America's richest men, Warren Buffet, recently complained that he wasn't paying enough tax. He pointed out that he was paying a lower marginal rate than his secretary.

Fair enough, said arch conservative Senator Mitch McConnell, if you are feeling guilty, send in a cheque. Another Republican Sentator, John Thune, sought to introduce a new column on tax returns to allow the rich the option of paying more to help ease the national debt.

Now it looks as though Mr Buffet (worth around $45bn) is going to call the Republican bluff. He's offered to match every contribution that the Republican senators give, dollar for dollar. And he's prepared to make a special case for Senator McConnell, paying $3 for every $1 from the politician.

Somehow I have a feeling that Mr Buffet is going to keep his money in his pockets.

Senin, 09 Januari 2012

Romney likes being able to fire people

Finally, the candidate focus in the US republican primary is turning its attention onto runaway favourite Mitt Romney and he suddenly looks vulnerable.

The story of the primary to date has been how one challenger after another has risen up in the polls, overtaken Romney and then fallen away through a mixture of media scrutiny and the sledgehammer of un-regulated attacks ads paid for by the slush fund loosely connected to Romney.

First there was Michelle Bachmann, the Tea Party favourite who won the opening bout when she topped the poll in the Ames Straw Poll last summer. Admittedly, the straw poll is all about paying for food and drink and getting your supporters to turn up to a state fair... (Only in America). But then she fell to earth with a crash to the extent that she scored just 6% in the actual Iowa caucuses and departed the race.

Next up was Pizza Company Exec Herman Cain. The man who wanted to be President but didn't really understand what was going on in Libya. He too became the favourite only to crash when multiple claims of sexual harrasment were made by former employees.

And then there was Rick Perry - the Governor of Texas who took 'Oh Shucks' populism to a new level. He entered the race to a huge fanfare but then fell away as the voters realised that electing someone more stupid than George W Bush would be, well, stupid.

And Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives who caused so much trouble for Clinton but who seems unable to translate that into primary success. He too saw his stock rise only to be attacked for his work as a lobbyist when he left office.

Finally there was Rick Santorum. A former senator renowned for getting pork barrel deals for his area - which is great if you are running for re-election in your state, but a little hard to explain to the voters of the other 49. In a party that is defined by religious zealotry, Senator Santorum is something special (he's more catholic than the Pope). With perfect timing he came within 8 votes of actually winning Iowa by the simple expedient of mounting his charge too late for anyone to do anything about it. The trouble is that then he became the focus of the attacks and he had no money left to rebut.

In the background the whole time have been two other candidates. Ron Paul is a 76 year old libertarian gynaecologist. His ideological purity is unimpeachable. The trouble is that his policies are hated by more than half of his party and he refuses to rule out running as a third party candidate if he loses. Paul will come second or third in every primary thanks to his fanatical band of supporters. He just doesn't have enough crossover support to win. He does have the best adverts though.

And then there is Jon Huntsman whose bid was fatally flawed by having worked for the Obama administration as Ambassador to China and by being nice. He's the other moderate in the race. But when Romney is leading by such a margin, there's no place for the other moderate. Huntsman has staked his whole run on doing well in this week's New Hampshire primary. in effect, he's this week's Santorum.

But with all the other candidates a busted flush, it has become time for the attention to focus on Romney. His problem is that he ran a venture capitalist company for a while. This business invested in other firms and hoped to make a profit. The trouble is that, when things didn't work out, people lost their jobs. And sometimes when things did work out people lost their jobs too. Today Romney made his most serious gaffe when he announced:
"I like being able to fire people"
That's capitalism for you. But it sits a little uneasily in a country which is facing mass unemployment. How can the republicans attack Obama over job losses when their presumptive candidate likes sacking people? And their other main attack line - the apparently 'socialist' decision to introduce a health care safety net - is blunted too by Romney's decision to have exactly the same in Massachusetts when he was Governor.

Finally there appears to be a chink in Romney's armour. It's not enough for any of the other candidates to hope to exploit. But if it runs for a while and Romney's popularity tanks as that of the others has done then it may just be enough to see one of those waiting in the wings (Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty or even Sarah Palin) decide to throw their hat into the ring.

Selasa, 06 Desember 2011

Is Newt promising Valhalla?

The US Presidential contest is hotting up and the Republican candidates are busy producing ads.

There's this from Newt Gingrich:



Forgive me, but every time I see the hand waving through a corn field, I automatically think of the film Gladiator when that image was used as a metaphor for death. Is this what Newt wanted to imply?

At the other end of the scale is this effort from Ron Paul, the ultra-libertarian. It's based on an ad for a truck and so, presumably, is designed to appeal to 'all American' men:



Sabtu, 18 September 2010

90 seconds with Jason Zadrozny

As I posted before, I'm trying to interview each of the four (or more?) possible candidates for the Presidency of the Lib Dems. I'll keep the videos very brief and try to ask similar questions to each.

The first candidate I caught was Jason Zadrozny.

Jumat, 23 Januari 2009

The wisdom of Jasper

Jasper is my four year old nephew. He was being looked after by my mother on Tuesday and Mum wanted to watch the Obama Inauguration. Because it's not the sort of programming Jasper usually watches, she explained to him that she wanted to watch the most important man in America on TV. Jasper's father (my brother) is off to a trade show in the States. So naturally Jasper assumed that his daddy was about to be on TV. He was most disappointed by the reality.

Selasa, 20 Januari 2009

Obama - borrowing from King, Kennedy... and Bartlet

I watched the Obama Inauguration Speech not expecting too much. Not that I am not a fan. But such a moment needs to send too many messages to too many people to really allow the oratory to soar. Back in the days of JFK, a new President could really let rip. But with today's global media (more than a billion people watched the speech live) there really does need to be a message for every audience and so today couldn't be the time to truly let rip. That moment (hopefully those moments) will come when he is free to concentrate on a single theme rather than having to saying something to everybody.

So what were my impressions of the speech?

Well there was a tad of JFK in there. It is surely expected for every incoming Democrat to borrow from him. Obama remade the 'Ask not...' portion of JFK's inaugural into his own words.

It has to be noted that another aspect also reminded me of Kennedy. There is an audience of the top VIPs seated behind the new president with a stairway directly behind his head. The people in the seats there believe they are so far back as to be out of camera shot. They do not realise that the TV cameras foreshorten things and so every movement they make is picked up and seen around the world. In JFKs case there is a woman (I believe Mrs Johnson) who spends most of the speech burying herself in her muffler. There is also someone who sits on the stairs to hear better - and therefore appears in the entire shot. Today we had someone standing near the back who is recording the speech on a cameraphone (I think) and had to be moved out of the way by someone who realised he was ruining the carefully planned clean shot.

Perhaps the biggest borrow was from Martin Luther King. Not surprising perhaps. But I recognised the form and content of much of the 'I have a dream' speech in Obama's words.

And finally there was Jed Bartlet. As soon a Dianne Feinstein announced that YoYo Ma was to play as part of the musical interlude I was reminded of one of the classic episodes of the West Wing.

It has to be said that if Obama manages to combine JFK, MLK and Bartlet in the future then I will be a happy bunny (although perhaps the likes of Iain Dale won't be)

Rabu, 05 November 2008

Bloody BBC

For all that Auntie is the nation's favourite, I've got to add my voice to those, including Iain Dale and Mark Pack on LDV, who have criticised their coverage of the US elections last night.

I don't disagree with the decision to send so many staff over for the coverage. I think that it was justified given the importance of the US, the historic nature of the election due to Obama's candidacy and the excitement about the result. In fact, I think that the BBC should be putting more effort (not quite as much as this, but significantly more than they do at the moment) into covering the elections of our other major partners - France, Germany, Japan and so on. People accuse the UK of being too US-minded. I think the understanding that comes from following elections, and in particular the debates over policy, informs the UK public about those countries and increases both their understanding and their sympathies.

But what a disaster the coverage was. Jeremy Vine couldn't remember how to get his screen to work and at times ended up prodding wildly at it. He had clearly got a crib sheet to tell him where to press when he wanted to highlight a particular county on the map but the insight we gained was minimal. He never explained why we should see this little bit of Ohio as being more significant than that little bit of Ohio. As ever, the BBC demanded 45 second segments and so we never got into the meat of it.

The studio guests were largely terrible. Larry the psephologist was ok, but most of the others had so little to add as to be a waste of space. Christopher Hitchens and John Bolton both made me want to throw stuff at the TV but as it was my brother's new 32 inch plasma I restrained myself. But at least they said something vaguely interesting and better than the blandness of most of the others.

The outside broadcasts were the worst. What is the BBC fascination with talking to ordinary people? You never hear from enough of them to make it worthwhile as a scientific poll and, because they are not Brits, we have little chance of feeling empathy for them. Better to stick with experts on the ground. But even these were strictly mediocre. It was good to hear Jesse Jackson - I presume the US networks wouldn't touch him - but most of the rest were so 'toe the line' partisan as to be not worthwhile. I don't want to hear that the Chair of the Bumfuck, Oklahoma Democratic Party thinks that Obama is great - I think I could have guessed that this would be their view. And it is historic that the US has elected its first non-white President. But we learn nothing from hearing endless African-American (or indeed white) voters simply telling us that it is so. We need more depth than that.

The bloggers were so useless and uninteresting as to provide a chance to go and get another beer. There are many great US bloggers out there and I'm guessing that they weren't all (if any?) taken up by the US networks. Why couldn't the BBC find a couple who knew how to string a sentence together and had something to say. Even if they represented fairly singular points of view they would have added something. I don't have a clue what the two bottle blondes were supposed to be doing. Were they meant to be giving their own opinions or reporting what others were saying. We certainly never knew from the 20 seconds an hour each was given to speak.

I felt it was fair enough for much of the concentration to be on what an Obama Presidency will be like once it became clear he would win - even before he got 270. Some people were using these discussions to accuse the BBC of bias. But various reporters were embarrassingly over the top well before that. I heard Richard Bacon on 5Live watching Obama vote and the screams he emitted when the guy's car came within 15 feet of him would have done a 60's Beatle fan proud. Get a grip man - you're supposed to be a professional.

And the producers should be shot. Not just for the failure to link properly - and that was bad enough. But it was always going to be the case that the first couple of hours would need filler discussions. So where was the in depth discussion of how the Electoral College system works. Better to do something once and well than take 20 seconds explaining it badly every hour. What about the fact that the US is a two party system. Let's discuss why the third party candidates are a sideshow this time (and also about the time Ross Perot wasn't) and what the two party system means for the way the election works.

And, fundamentally, let's have proper discussions about what each result means and a proper debate between people from each camp. Interrupt if there is genuinely something useful or new to say, but otherwise why not let a debate or segment run on for 5-10 minutes. You've got the tickers to keep people up to speed on the nuts and bolts of what has already happened.

I was lucky enough to have my laptop with me while watching and kept up to date with Dale's live chat (and thus what the different networks were saying) and with the Betfair markets (although I wasn't betting). These provided blessed relief from the most inane segments of Auntie.

The whole 'calling' thing was the subject of much debate on Dale. The BBC took the difficult decision to go with what ABC said (or AP and one other network) and I think, on balance, that was fair enough. It would have got a tad confusing if they had simply taken what the first network said about any state and there was no way they could justify seeking to put in the infrastructure to call for themselves. But they managed to foul up royally with the whole Fox/Ohio thing. They mentioned that Fox had called the state for Obama but failed to note that this was a mistake and Fox immediately retracted. Instead they simply kept schtum until the state was actually called for Obama some 20 minutes later - clearly they just made the assumption that it would come good in the end. Isn't that a form of misinformation of the kind that the BBC are supposed to be stamping out?

Side note - I await the first politician or commentator to bemoan the fact that in the UK we don't have 3 hour queues outside polling stations, isn't it terrible etc etc. Well if you cut the number of polling stations in half and have 25+ contests on the ballot we might well do so!

Senin, 01 September 2008

Palin's 17 year old daughter will marry father of her unborn child

So day one of the Republican convention brings the first tabloid expose. It appears that the daughter of Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, is pregnant. The scandal is that she is 17 and not married to the father.

In the normal course of events, so what. But this is republican politics and Sarah Palin is an arch social Conservative.

So Palin has announced that her daughter Bristol will be marrying the father. Doesn't sound to me as though he (or she) had much of a say in the matter.

Kamis, 24 April 2008

Hillary - biter bit

So will Hillary now be promising to obliterate Israel? Of course not. And nor should she. But in the field of international relations you should never back yourself into a corner. She did so with her stupid comments over Iran and now it emerges that Israel bombed a nuclear plant in Syria - presumably spreading radioactive material far and wide and killing many innocent people for years to come.

Yet to promise to obliterate a country for an unprovoked attack leads you into very dark and dangerous territory.

Selasa, 22 April 2008

Why Hillary is not fit to be President

It'll win her votes, but absolutely no friends in the wider world. Hillary Clinton has announced that if Iran launches a nuclear attack on Israel then the US could obliterate the country.

Let's not get into the rights and wrongs of what the President of the USA should do if such an attack were launched. We don't need to. In order to judge Hillary, just consider her decision to talk up an attack by Iran on Israel and the prospect of nuclear war.

Why does she need to do so? For all that she has portrayed herself as ready to govern from day one, Hillary now seems to be casting herself in the role of comic book action hero. Talking and diplomacy is for wimps. What the world needs is a President ready to obliterate first and ask questions later.

So what will happen if she wins? Iran will push and edge forward. Never doing anything that will unite the world (or even just the West) in opposition. And where does Hillary go? She's (over)played her trump card and has no stance at the table.

Unfortunately, the pressure cooker of the US election system will always force candidates into making stupid statements about the rest of the world - statements more suited to school mock elections than the contest to lead the free world. The US public might like to know that their President is 'in charge' but what use is that if the rest of the world goes to hell in a handbasket.