Party for Cornwall?

There's a Cornwall Council by-election taking place in St Keverne following the sad death of Independent councillor Pam Lyne. But, once again, the so called 'Party for Cornwall', MK, are not putting up a candidate.

This will be the fifth by-election of the council and, to date, MK have only put up candidates in two of them. Confusingly, the last by-election was in nearby Wendron which MK won (and all credit to them). So how come they have given this one a pass?

Are they really the Party for Cornwall?

UPDATE - Andrew Long, MK's Deputy Leader, tells me that they had a candidate who had to withdraw at the last minute for family reasons.

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Wendron: Lib Dems jump from fifth to second and congrats to MK

In case you haven't seen it elsewhere, this is the result of the Wendron by-election:

Loveday Jenkin (MK) - 427 - 36.4% (+16.4%)
John Martin (LD) - 262 - 22.3% (+12.3%)
Conservative 227 - 19.4% (+3.4%)
Independent 177 - 15.1% (-16.9%)
Labour 80 - 6.8% (+3.8%)

A great result for the Lib Dems jumping from fifth in 2009 to second this time. This was down to a brilliant candidate in John Martin and a fantastic campaign.

Obviously congratulations are due to Loveday Jenkin who came second last time and gained it this time.

The Lib Dems leapfrogged the Tories (third in 2009). This was the fourth by-election in this council. So far they have lost two seats and been failed to make any impression in two others that they thought they would win.

And where were Labour? Remember all their boasts about being a serious force in Cornwall. Perhaps you could excuse Bude - not exactly their best area. But half of Wendron falls within Camborne, Redruth and Hayle - their supposed heartland.

Thanks to everyone who helped in Wendron. We can be proud of this result.

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David Penhaligon would not be backing MK

Dick Cole, Leader of Mebyon Kernow, is entering General Election mode. Nothing wrong with that. But he has quoted an outrageous statement on his blog which demands an answer.

Dick quotes and article in the Western Morning News y a Simon Parker which is disparaging about the Lib Dems and about Nick Clegg in particular. All fairly standard stuff. But he claims that David Penhaligon, the much loved MP for Truro for many years and the man who inspired me to join the Liberal Party, would today be backing Mebyon Kernow.

I am sure that, had David not been tragically killed back in 1986, he would have gone on to lead the Liberal Party and the Liberal Democrats. I am sure that, although very different in style to Paddy Ashdown, he would have had the same effect in launching the Party from the ruins of the merger to one which would command attention on the national stage. You never know, he may even have been more successful than Paddy.

But even if we don't try to re-imagine history but simply have David alive and well today, I am sure that he would be a very active and passionate member of the Liberal Democrats. When David didn't agree with Party policy he argued passionately for his case (and usually won the day).

David believed in making sure that the poorer people in Cornwall had a better quality of life. The Liberal Democrats would raise the tax threshold to £10,000 so that many thousands of Cornish residents would no longer pay any tax at all. I'm sure he would have had no truck with overly bureaucratic tax credits and other centralised means of handing a few quid to poorer people and far more to consultants, contractors and bureaucrats.

Of course MK would want David as a member. Any party would. He was immense. But to claim that David would have walked away from the Party he loved and which he helped to create is a step too far.

What St Austell Bay means for Cornwall (clue: lots more Lib Dems)

Back in the days when the BBC covered by-elections properly, a standing feature of any coverage would include Peter Snow producing a map of the UK showing what the result would mean for UK politics nationwide. One particular highlight was the result of the Ribble Valley by-election when the entire country went Lib Dem gold except for a tiny portion of East Anglia. John Major would have been the only Tory MP to survive the onslaught.

Following the Lib Dem win in St Austell Bay last Thursday, I've done the same thing for Cornwall Council.

Based on a uniform swing of 13.46% from Conservatives to Lib Dems (and with Independents and others holding their own), the result in Cornwall would be:

Conservatives 9 seats (down 41)
Liberal Democrats 80 seats (up 42)
Independents 31 seats (down 1)
Mebyon Kernow 2 seats (down 1)
Others 1 seat (up 1)

The only Conservatives to hold their seats would be Joan Symons, Scott Mann, John Dyer, John Fitter, Neil Hatton, Liz Penhaligon, Armand Toms, Roger Harding and Pat Lamshead.

More immediately, the Lib Dems would also take all six of the Parliamentary seats in next year's General Election.

St Austell Bay - Cornwall turns its back on the Tories

I made it to St Austell Bay yesterday after all. I had to work in Launceston until 6.45 and made it down there for quarter to eight for the last bit of knocking up and the count.

And boy am I glad I did.

John Oxenham's victory - on a huge 13% swing - was a great triumph for him and for the St Austell and Newquay team. But it will also have wider implications for the Conservatives in Cornwall.

Seeing the ballot papers come out of the boxes and the tally sheets, I thought we were close but no cigar. The Conservatives went into the election with a majority of over 350 (one of their safest seats in the County) and when the boxes were opened I thought we were looking at a Tory hold with a majority of around 50. That would have been a great swing, but still a Tory hold.

Hamish McCallum, the Lib Dem agent, said that he thought at this stage it was still 'do-able'. I thought he was simply putting on a brave face. I'm sorry Hamish, I was wrong.

In the end, after a recount, John Oxenham won by 15 votes and becomes the 39th Lib Dem councillor in Cornwall.

The Conservative candidate was Bob Davidson, their County organiser and a man who promised in a letter to voters that he would go to sort out County Hall. Maybe Tory Leader and Deputy Alec Robertson and Jim Currie (both of whom came to the Count) will be secretly glad that Bob won't be there to tell them where they have been going wrong?

Bob Davidson was beaten by the Lib Dem Graham Walker back in June (majority 19) and was beaten again last night. He was so ungracious this time that he refused to stay for the formal declaration. Instead he was pacing around outside with his phone glued to his ear.

The Lib Dem campaign was an incredibly strong one. Virtually all the Cornwall Councillors came to help John and there was also a great showing from the constituency parties and campaign teams.

The Tories also threw everything they could at it - matching the Lib Dems leaflet for leaflet. That is almost unheard of in Cornwall. Yet still they lost.

I think that the message from St Austell Bay is that Cornwall has seen what the Conservatives have to offer in the County and they are turning their backs on them. Back in June commentators might have looked at Cornwall and thought that the Lib Dems would have a tough time defending their seats. After last night's results I think we all know that the Lib Dems can hold off the Tory challenge. It's still going to be a tough fight, but it is one that the Lib Dems and the people of Cornwall know they can win.

A footnote: Labour stood in this election and managed just 66 votes - less than 5%. They are finished in Cornwall.

Another footnote: Where were Mebyon Kernow. The so called Party of Cornwall couldn't even put up a candidate for an import and by-election in the County. At their conference last week, Leader Dick Cole promised big things.